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According to Michaël van de Poppe, Bitcoin's trajectory remains bearish despite a slight bounce earlier today. He anticipates the possibility of Bitcoin reaching new lows in the coming weeks, which he sees as an opportunity to accumulate larger positions as this may represent the final phase of the bear market.

According to Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), the current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market may already be over, with signs of consolidation emerging. He highlights that BTC has seen a 70% drawdown against Gold, consistent with typical bear market corrections of 70-85%. Additionally, he notes that Bitcoin has been in a bear market for 13-14 months, a timeframe historically associated with market bottoms versus Gold. This analysis suggests potential opportunities for traders as the market trends shift.

According to Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), Bitcoin's (BTC) valuation against gold has displayed a strong monthly engulfing pattern, which historically marked the end of bear markets in 2015, 2018, and 2020. However, he cautions that similar patterns in 2022 did not lead to an immediate rally, as external events like the FTX collapse caused further declines. Traders should monitor this signal carefully as it may indicate a potential market reversal for BTC.

According to @MI_Algos, the recent movement in Bitcoin's (BTC) range is not the final flush but one of many to come. FireCharts data indicates thin ask liquidity up to $73k, suggesting potential bounces. However, each bounce is expected to face selling pressure. Traders are advised to remain patient, capitalize on opportunities in both directions, and refine their bear market strategies.

According to @glassnode, the unrealized loss in the Bitcoin (BTC) market at $70K equates to approximately 16% of the market cap, reflecting a pain structure similar to early May 2022. The analysis highlights that while bearish sentiment persists, unrealized losses at $107K represent only 1.3% of Bitcoin's market cap, far below the thresholds typically seen in mild or severe bear markets. This suggests the market pain has not yet reached levels characteristic of a true bear phase.

According to Glassnode, on-chain investor behavior observed around Halloween indicated a potential shift into a bear market. Over the next approximately 100 days, cryptocurrency prices experienced a significant contraction of 45%. Glassnode now revisits key on-chain metrics to evaluate the depth and duration of this bear market phase, providing insights into investor sentiment and market trends.

According to @glassnode, the Bitcoin market is experiencing a bear regime characterized by a high Relative Unrealized Loss, which measures the USD value of underwater coins relative to market cap. At $60k, this metric reached approximately 24%, surpassing the bull-bear market transition threshold and indicating a potential capitulation process. However, the market remains below extreme capitulation levels observed above 50%, suggesting further downside risk remains.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the current crypto bear market has lasted 122 days (98th percentile) with a 49.6% drawdown, based on his latest dataset (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X). He notes many indicators are comparable to prior bear market bottoms and that there is significant 'duration pain,' but aggregate profit and loss metrics have not fully capitulated, so he believes the final cycle bottom has not yet occurred (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X). He introduced a new cycle bottom probability model to reduce guesswork in timing the low; it has only ticked up slightly and will be updated regularly, indicating the market may be very close but not fully there yet (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X).

According to @CryptoMichNL, Bitcoin's daily RSI has fallen to 18, a level he notes has only appeared during the August 2023 drop, the 2020 COVID crash, and the November 2018 low, highlighting extreme oversold conditions historically tied to capitulation events (source: @CryptoMichNL on X). He interprets the current reading as consistent with capitulation and a bear market low setup for traders to watch (source: @CryptoMichNL on X).

According to @CryptoMichNL, the BTC to gold valuation has fallen below 30, a level he associates with historic bear market low zones (source: @CryptoMichNL). He cautions that a second leg down remains possible despite this signal, citing similar structures in 2022 during the November breakdown and in 2018 with further downside continuation (source: @CryptoMichNL). He also notes the production cost of one BTC is really close, underscoring caution for traders around potential bear market lows and drawdown risks (source: @CryptoMichNL).

According to @milesdeutscher, the crypto market is at a critical inflection with only two outcomes ahead, either a first ever supercycle that breaks the 4-year cycle in 2026 or a bear market, outlining a binary regime for traders to monitor (source: @milesdeutscher on X, Jan 13, 2026). According to @milesdeutscher, no specific price levels, catalysts, or timing guidance beyond the 2026 cycle reference were provided, indicating a top-down regime call rather than a data-driven forecast (source: @milesdeutscher on X, Jan 13, 2026). According to @milesdeutscher, this binary framing signals the need for parallel bullish and bearish scenario planning and cautious positioning until clearer confirmation appears (source: @milesdeutscher on X, Jan 13, 2026).